By Samer Majzoub

The latest Quebec political polling suggests a highly competitive race between the Parti Québécois and the Quebec Liberal Party, with both parties nearly tied in the popular vote. However, this apparent deadlock masks an important electoral reality: vote distribution may matter more than overall support.

The Parti Québécois continues to benefit from stronger backing in regional ridings, which could translate into a disproportionate share of seats under Quebec’s electoral system. In contrast, the Liberals are gaining significant momentum, particularly in urban centres, but have yet to fully convert that support into a clear seat advantage.

Another key variable is the internal evolution of the Coalition Avenir Québec. Its upcoming leadership dynamics, on April 12, 2026, could reshape the race. A victory by Jean-François Drainville could accelerate the party’s decline, potentially benefiting both leading parties indirectly. On the other hand, a win by Sonia LeBel Fréchette (Fréchette) might draw support away from the Liberals, tightening the contest further.

Despite the CAQ’s weakening position, it remains a pivotal factor in determining the final outcome. Its voters could ultimately decide which of the two leading parties gains the upper hand.

At its core, the race is shaping into a broader political and ideological contest: a Liberal Party advocating for stability within Canada, versus a Parti Québécois promoting Quebec sovereignty. With several months still ahead, the trajectory of voter shifts and how they are distributed across the province will be decisive.

Lutte à deux PQ-PLQ: Legault sauve les meubles avant de partir | TVA Nouvelles